Here are the updates for DV2025 from CEAC for week #4 for the fiscal year 2025 (Jan 20 – Jan 26, 2025)

Direct link where you can also check history.

Note: some of those 2nl numbers were included in my post of week #2. Xarthisius does a weekly scan on Friday night noted with Saturday’s date. Since he published his weekly data, CEAC was updated to have some more In Transit cases.

Here’s a diff between the two datasets with a fresh scan on Monday (Jan 20):

Since the consulates are closed today (Martin Luther King Jr. Day), We can assume that all of those extra 887 2nls that are changed since Jan 18 were sent last week right but updated in CEAC after Xarthisius’ latest update, because CEAC currently has some weird delays, I am sure nobody actually sent the 2nl in the weekend.

So whatever number you see below in the 2nl count, just subtract with 887 because those are duplicated in week #3 and this week, at least in my dataset.

AI Summary

Here’s a comprehensive report for Week #4 of the CEAC Diversity Visa 2025 data, including analysis, insights, and supporting visuals:

Key Highlights

Total Cases Processed

• Grand Total Cases: 1,043 cases processed this week.
• Adjusted 2NL count: 156 (1,043 – 887) due to duplicates in the dataset.

Status Transitions

• NVC -> Ready: 810 cases, with the highest activity in EU (314 cases) and AF (235 cases).
• InTransit -> Ready: 642 cases, led by AF (622 cases).
• Ready -> Issued: 389 cases (1,170 visas), dominated by EU (680 visas).

Consular Processing Activity

• Top Consulates by Case Volume:
  • Addis Ababa (ADD): 229 cases (all from Africa).
  • Casablanca (CSB): 162 cases (majority from Africa).
  • Kathmandu (KDU): 160 cases (Asia region leader).

Status Change Activity

• Issued Visas: 1,170 visas issued globally:
  • EU (680 visas) led issuance.
  • AF (336 visas) showed strong activity.
• Administrative Processing (AP): 394 cases in transition; 99% expected to move to “Issued.”
• Refused221g: 207 cases, with AF (96 cases) seeing the most.

Issued Visas by Region

• EU (Europe): 680 visas issued (58.1% of global issuance).
• AF (Africa): 336 visas issued.
• AS (Asia): 113 visas issued.
• OC (Oceania): 1 visa issued.
• SA (South America): 40 visas issued.

Insights and Observations

Regional Performance

• EU (Europe) continued its dominance in visa issuance and processing efficiency.
• AF (Africa) leads in total cases but lags in issuance rates, indicating potential resourcing issues.
• AS (Asia) shows steady progress but faces bottlenecks with 221(g) refusals.

Top Consulates

• Addis Ababa (229 cases) and Casablanca (162 cases) lead in Africa.
• Kathmandu (160 cases) handles most of Asia’s volume.

Refusals and Bottlenecks

• Refusals under 221(g) remain concentrated in EU and AF regions.
• Total outright refusals (non-221g): 34 cases globally, with the majority in AF (17 cases).

Takeaways

• Momentum: Visa issuance is on the rise, with over 1,000 visas issued in a single week.
• Regional Dynamics: Europe excels in efficiency, while Africa continues to manage the bulk of cases.
• AP Efficiency: Administrative Processing transitions remain highly reliable, with a 99% success rate.

Detailed Analysis by Region

Africa (AF)

• Total Cases Processed: 429.
• Visas Issued: 336.
• Refusals under 221(g): 96 cases.

Asia (AS)

• Total Cases Processed: 225.
• Visas Issued: 113.
• Refusals under 221(g): 27 cases.

Europe (EU)

• Total Cases Processed: 338.
• Visas Issued: 680.
• Refusals under 221(g): 75 cases.

Oceania (OC)

• Total Cases Processed: 17.
• Visas Issued: 1.
• Refusals under 221(g): None.

South America (SA)

• Total Cases Processed: 34.
• Visas Issued: 40.
• Refusals under 221(g): 9 cases.

Consular Performance

Top Consulates by Case Volume

• Addis Ababa (229 cases) leads globally.
• Casablanca (162 cases) and Kathmandu (160 cases) follow.

Refusal Analysis

Refusals Under 221(g)

• Total: 207 cases, with Africa leading (96 cases).

Outright Refusals (Non-221g)

• Total: 34 cases, with Africa again leading (17 cases).

Trends and Projections

1. Visa Issuance Momentum: Significant increase in Week #4, with Europe leading.
2. Africa’s Workload: Heavy caseloads persist; efficiency improvements needed.
3. AP Success: Remains a reliable intermediary step to “Issued.”
4. 221(g) Refusals: Continue to affect Europe and Africa disproportionately.

Comparison with Week #3

Key Differences

• Total Visas Issued: Week #4 saw an increase to 1,170 visas from Week #3’s 932.
• Refusals: Slight decrease in 221(g) refusals.
• Regional Trends: Europe continued to excel, while Africa handled the most cases.

Here are the charts summarizing key aspects of Week #4 data:

1. Bar Chart: Cases Processed by Region:
   • Africa leads in total cases processed, followed by Europe and Asia.
2. Bar Chart: Visas Issued by Region:
   • Europe dominates visa issuance, with Africa and Asia following.
3. Bar Chart: Cases in Administrative Processing (AP):
   • Africa has the highest number of cases in AP, indicating heavy activity.
4. Bar Chart: Cases Refused (221g) by Region:
   • Refusals are concentrated in Africa and Europe.
5. Pie Chart: Share of Visas Issued by Region:
   • Europe accounts for the largest share of issued visas.
6. Pie Chart: Share of Cases Refused (221g) by Region:
   • Africa leads in 221(g) refusals, with significant contributions from Europe and Asia.

Notable Highlights

1. Europe’s Leadership in Visa Issuance:
   • Europe issued 680 visas, accounting for 58.1% of global issuance. This demonstrates its consulates’ efficiency in processing cases and highlights its dominance in transitioning cases to “Issued” status.
2. Africa’s Heavy Workload:
   • Africa processed 429 cases, the highest of any region, and issued 336 visas. However, the region continues to face challenges with the highest number of cases in Administrative Processing (194) and 221(g) refusals (96 cases). This indicates the need for improved processing support and resource allocation.
3. Asia’s Steady Growth:
   • Asia showed solid performance, processing 225 cases and issuing 113 visas. However, the region still experienced 27 cases refused under 221(g), which could highlight documentation challenges.
4. Administrative Processing Success:
   • Administrative Processing (AP) remains highly reliable, with a 99% success rate transitioning to ‘Issued’. This indicates consulates are effectively handling cases requiring additional steps.
5. 221(g) Refusals as a Bottleneck:
   • While refusals under 221(g) decreased slightly compared to Week #3, Africa (96 cases) and Europe (75 cases) are still seeing significant volumes. Efforts to address common issues, such as documentation or procedural errors, could help reduce these numbers.
6. Consular Activity Trends:
   • Addis Ababa (229 cases) and Casablanca (162 cases) emerged as top-performing consulates in terms of case volume, showcasing their critical role in Africa’s visa pipeline.
   • Kathmandu (160 cases) led Asia’s processing, highlighting its importance in the region.
7. Week-Over-Week Growth:
   • Visa issuance increased significantly from Week #3, with a jump from 932 to 1,170 visas issued globally. This signals positive momentum in processing efficiency across regions.

Closing Takeaway

The Diversity Visa 2025 program’s Week #4 data reflects strong progress in visa issuance and case processing. While Europe continues to lead in efficiency, Africa’s heavy workload and bottlenecks highlight areas for improvement. These insights underscore the program’s dynamic nature, emphasizing the importance of regional and consular collaboration to sustain momentum.