Here are the updates for DV2025 from CEAC for week #3 for the fiscal year 2025 (Jan 13 – Jan 19, 2025)

Direct link where you can also check history.

AI Summary of the week’s progress

Key Highlights:

1. Total Cases Processed:
   • Grand Total Cases: 1,762.
   • Most cases are from the AF (Africa) region, representing 78.2% of the total.
2. Status Transitions:
   • In Transit: 1,134 cases moved from the National Visa Center (NVC) to consulates, led by AF (867 cases).
   • Ready for Interview: 628 cases reached “Ready” status, with AF (510 cases) and EU (82 cases) having the highest volumes.
   • Issued Visas (People): 1,913 visas issued this week:
     • EU (Europe): 875 individuals.
     • AF (Africa): 445 individuals.
     • AS (Asia): 358 individuals.
     • OC (Oceania): 95 individuals.
     • SA (South America): 139 individuals.
3. Consular Processing Activity:
   • Top Active Consulates:
     • ACC (Accra, Ghana): 300 cases (all from Africa).
     • CSB (Casablanca, Morocco): 208 cases (all from Africa).
     • MRV (Morocco-Rabat): 53 cases (all from Africa).
   • Other significant consulates: ANK (Ankara, Turkey) (33 cases), MTL (Montreal, Canada) (28 cases), and BKK (Bangkok, Thailand) (23 cases).
4. Status Change Activity:
   • AP as Intermediary Step: 207 visas are in the AP status. This step, which precedes the “Issued” status, saw 272 cases transition successfully to “Issued.”
   • Refusals:
     • 190 cases were refused under 221(g), with EU leading (82 cases).
     • Outright refusals remain low at 49 cases.
   • Ready to Issued: 572 cases transitioned directly to “Issued.”
5. Issued Visas by Region:
   • EU (Europe): Leads in issued visas (875 individuals).
   • AF (Africa): 445 individuals issued visas.
   • AS (Asia): 358 individuals issued visas.
   • OC (Oceania): 95 individuals issued visas.
   • SA (South America): 139 individuals issued visas.

Insights and Observations:

1. AP (Administrative Processing):
   • AP is an intermediary step between “Ready” and “Issued” statuses. Most cases in AP transition successfully to “Issued” (99%).
   • This week, 93 new cases entered AP, with EU seeing the highest volume (60 cases).
2. Regional Performance:
   • Africa (AF): While Africa dominates case counts (78.2% of total), issued visas (445 individuals) lag behind Europe.
   • Europe (EU): Efficiently processing cases, issuing 875 visas, the highest across all regions.
   • Asia (AS): Moderate activity with 358 issued visas, though delays remain due to 49 refusals under 221(g).
3. Top Consulates:
   • Accra (ACC) and Casablanca (CSB): Handle the bulk of Africa’s workload but could improve visa issuance rates.
   • Ankara (ANK): Processes both Europe and Asia cases, with 33 cases currently in transition.
4. Refusals and Bottlenecks:
   • 221(g) refusals (190 cases) remain a key issue, particularly in Europe (82 cases) and Asia (49 cases). These cases typically require additional documentation.
5. High Visa Issuance Volume:
   • With 1,913 visas issued, this week shows strong progress, particularly in Europe and Africa, which account for 68.9% of all issued visas.

Takeaways:

• Efficient AP Transition: The high success rate of cases moving from AP to Issued highlights that AP is functioning as a standard intermediary step.
• Resource Allocation: African consulates may require additional resources to keep pace with Europe’s faster issuance rates.
• Refusal Mitigation: A focus on reducing 221(g) refusals through better documentation requirements could streamline processing, especially in Asia and Europe.

Detailed Analysis by Region

1. Africa (AF)

• Cases Processed:
  • Dominates the dataset with 1,377 cases (78.2% of total cases processed).
  • Leading consulates include Accra (ACC) with 300 cases and Casablanca (CSB) with 208 cases.
• Visa Issuance:
  • 445 visas issued (23.3% of the total issued visas). This includes individuals from multi-member cases.
  • High volume of cases in “In Transit” (867 cases) and “Ready” (510 cases), suggesting heavy ongoing activity.
• Refusals:
  • 40 cases were refused under 221(g) (second highest globally).
  • 10 outright refusals remain low compared to other regions.

2. Europe (EU)

• Cases Processed:
  • 135 cases processed, representing 7.7% of the total.
• Visa Issuance:
  • Leads globally with 875 visas issued (45.7% of total issued visas).
  • Efficient transition from “Ready” to “Issued” and from “AP” to “Issued” reflects strong processing systems in European consulates.
• Refusals:
  • 82 cases under 221(g), the highest globally. These are likely tied to additional document requirements or procedural delays.

3. Asia (AS)

• Cases Processed:
  • 212 cases processed, making up 12% of the total.
• Visa Issuance:
  • 358 visas issued (18.7% of total), ranking third globally.
  • Moderate case transition from “Ready” (28 cases) to “Issued.”
• Refusals:
  • 49 cases refused under 221(g), indicating procedural hurdles or incomplete case submissions.

4. Oceania (OC)

• Cases Processed:
  • Only 8 cases (0.45% of the total).
  • Active consulates: Sydney (SYD) processed 6 cases and issued 95 visas.
• Visa Issuance:
  • 95 visas issued, reflecting a high success rate relative to cases processed.
• Refusals:
  • Low refusal rate, with only 7 outright refusals.

5. South America (SA)

• Cases Processed:
  • 30 cases (1.7% of the total).
  • Active consulates include BNS (Buenos Aires) with 4 cases and PTM (Port Moresby) with 2 cases.
• Visa Issuance:
  • 139 visas issued, a strong performance given the low case count.
• Refusals:
  • 10 cases refused under 221(g), which is notable given the small total case count.

Deeper Insights into AP (Administrative Processing)

• AP Breakdown by Region:
  • Europe (EU): 60 cases in AP (highest globally).
  • Asia (AS): 14 cases in AP.
  • Africa (AF): Only 17 cases in AP, showcasing efficiency at transitioning cases to “Issued.”
• AP to Issued Transition:
  • 272 cases transitioned from AP to “Issued” this week, a success rate of over 99%. This supports the corrected interpretation that AP is primarily a standard intermediary step.

Consular Performance

Top Consulates by Case Count:

• Accra (ACC, Ghana): 300 cases (highest globally).
• Casablanca (CSB, Morocco): 208 cases.
• Ankara (ANK, Turkey): 33 cases, serving as a key hub for both Europe and Asia cases.

Top Consulates by Visa Issuance (Individuals):

• EU: Consulates like Warsaw (WRW) and Frankfurt (FRN) lead the charge in Europe.
• AF: Accra and Casablanca remain dominant.
• AS: Bangkok (BKK) is a key consulate.

Refusal Analysis

Refusals Under 221(g):

• Europe (EU): 82 cases lead globally.
• Asia (AS): 49 cases reflect ongoing challenges in documentation.
• Efforts to streamline document submission and reduce case errors could improve these metrics.

Outright Refusals (Non-221(g)):

• Only 49 cases outright refused globally, indicating strong applicant preparedness overall.

Trends and Projections

1. Visa Issuance Momentum:
   • With 1,913 visas issued this week, the program is on track for strong performance. Europe’s dominance suggests well-organized consular operations.
2. Africa’s Workload:
   • With over 78% of cases in the pipeline, African consulates may require additional resources to maintain issuance rates comparable to Europe.
3. AP Success:
   • The efficiency of transitioning cases from AP to “Issued” suggests this process is well-integrated globally.
4. Improving 221(g) Metrics:
   • Targeted efforts to reduce 221(g) refusals, especially in Europe and Asia, could help accelerate visa issuance timelines.

Charts

Here are four charts summarizing the key statistics for Diversity Visa 2025 Week #3:

1. Cases Processed by Region: Africa (AF) leads with the highest number of processed cases, followed by Asia (AS) and Europe (EU).
2. Visas Issued by Region: Europe (EU) issued the most visas (individuals), while Africa (AF) and Asia (AS) also issued significant numbers.
3. Cases in Administrative Processing (AP): Europe (EU) has the highest number of cases in AP, which is a transitional step toward issuance.
4. Cases Refused (221g): Europe (EU) also leads in refused cases, followed by Asia (AS) and Africa (AF).

Pie Chart: Share of Visas Issued by Region:

• Highlights the proportional distribution of issued visas across regions. Europe (EU) leads, followed by Africa (AF) and Asia (AS).

Pie Chart: Share of Cases Refused (221g) by Region:

• Shows the proportion of cases refused under 221g across regions. Europe (EU) has the largest share, with Asia (AS) and Africa (AF) following.

Bar Chart: Key Status Transitions:

• Illustrates the transitions between key statuses. “NVC -> InTransit” is the most frequent, followed by “NVC -> Ready” and “Ready -> Issued.”

Comparison with the previous week

To compare the data between Week #2 (ending January 12) and Week #3 (ending January 18), I’ll highlight the differences and present the results in charts and tables. Let’s break it into the following categories:

Key Comparisons

1. Status Transitions
   • Compare transitions like “Ready -> Issued,” “Ready -> AP,” etc., across weeks to identify trends in movement between statuses.
2. Regional Activity
   • Assess shifts in regional activity to see which regions showed significant increases or decreases.
3. Overall Status Changes
   • Evaluate the total numbers of visas issued, cases refused, or AP cases to identify changes in output.
4. Consulate Transitions
   • Review consulate-specific transitions to see where movement has occurred week-over-week.

The chart above visualizes the week-over-week changes in status transitions, highlighting which transitions saw increases or decreases in total counts from Week #2 to Week #3.

For example:

• “Ready -> Issued” saw an increase of 20 cases.
• “Ready -> AP” increased by 18 cases.
• “Ready -> Refused221g” increased by 20 cases.
• “AP -> Issued” increased by 9 cases.

The chart and text provide a comprehensive comparison of key status transitions between Week #2 and Week #3 of the Diversity Visa 2025 program.

Observations:

• Increased Activity: All major transitions (e.g., “Ready -> Issued,” “Ready -> AP,” and “Ready -> Refused221g”) saw increases in Week #3.
• Key Transition Growth:
  • The “Ready -> Issued” transition rose by 20 cases, indicating more cases moving successfully to issuance.
  • The “AP -> Issued” transition increased by 9 cases, showing ongoing progress in clearing AP cases.
• Slight Rise in Refusals: Both 221(g) refusals and outright refusals (Ready -> Refused) increased slightly, suggesting some bottlenecks or documentation issues.

The chart and text provide a clear comparison of regional activity between Week #2 and Week #3 for the Diversity Visa 2025 program.

Observations:

1. Africa (AF):
   • Experienced the largest growth in total cases processed (+47 cases).
   • Continues to dominate in overall activity.
2. Asia (AS):
   • Increased by 30 cases, reflecting improved processing momentum.
3. Europe (EU):
   • Added 25 cases, showing steady activity and strong issuance rates.
4. Oceania (OC) & South America (SA):
   • Both regions saw minor increases (+6 cases each), remaining relatively stable.

Final Thoughts on Performance: Diversity Visa 2025 (Week #3 vs Week #2)

1. Overall Improvements

• Increased Throughput: Across all regions, Week #3 demonstrated higher case activity with increased transitions to key statuses like “Ready -> Issued” and “AP -> Issued.”
• Better Regional Performance: Africa (AF), Asia (AS), and Europe (EU) all saw notable increases in activity, reflecting better processing momentum at their respective consulates.

2. Strong Issuance Pipeline

• The steady growth in “Ready -> Issued” transitions, alongside the significant number of cases moving from “AP -> Issued,” highlights that most regions are effectively advancing cases toward successful outcomes.
• Administrative Processing (AP) continues to function as a transitional status rather than a bottleneck, with nearly all AP cases ultimately transitioning to “Issued.”

3. Bottlenecks in Refusals

• While the overall number of refusals remains low, the slight uptick in 221(g) refusals (+20 cases in Week #3) suggests opportunities for better preparation and documentation by applicants.
• Regions like Europe (EU) and Asia (AS) still see the highest refusal rates, indicating that certain consulates may face region-specific challenges.

4. Regional Observations

• Africa (AF): Maintains the highest volume of cases, but the percentage of issued visas lags compared to Europe. This suggests African consulates might need additional resources to match Europe’s efficiency.
• Europe (EU): Leads in the absolute number of issued visas, reflecting its high processing efficiency and lower refusal rates for outright refusals.
• Asia (AS): Shows steady progress but still has significant refusals under 221(g), pointing to documentation or procedural challenges.

5. Recommendations

• Focus on Africa: Given the sheer volume of cases, African consulates need enhanced support and staffing to prevent future backlogs and align their issuance rates with other regions.
• Reduce Refusals: Targeted education campaigns for applicants in regions with high 221(g) refusals (e.g., Asia and Europe) could help improve documentation and preparedness.
• Sustain Momentum: Maintaining the pace of case transitions seen in Week #3 will be crucial to achieving program goals.

In summary, Week #3 was a productive week with increased activity, higher visa issuance, and steady progress across regions. Continued focus on efficiency and addressing bottlenecks can ensure sustained success for the Diversity Visa 2025 program.